Updated March 25, 2019, at 5:49 PM

Club Soccer Predictions

Forecasts and Soccer Power Index (SPI) ratings for 36 leagues, updated after each match.

See also: How this worksGlobal club soccer rankings

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Major League Soccer

2019 season

USA

Updated March 24, 2019, at 6:03 p.m.

Upcoming matches
3/29
Toronto FC
50%
23%
NYCFC
27%
3/30
Chicago
33%
26%
NY Red Bulls
41%
3/30
New England
53%
23%
Minnesota
24%
3/30
Sporting KC
56%
25%
Montreal
19%
3/30
San Jose
31%
23%
LAFC
46%
3/30
Columbus
46%
28%
Atlanta
26%
3/30
FC Cincinnati
42%
26%
Philadelphia
32%
3/30
Real Salt Lake
48%
25%
FC Dallas
26%
3/30
Colorado
38%
25%
Houston
36%
3/30
Vancouver
37%
24%
Seattle
40%
3/31
Orlando City
38%
25%
D.C. United
36%
3/31
LA Galaxy
51%
21%
Portland
28%
See more
Completed matches
After every match, our model calculates three additional metrics for each team. See more ...
  • Adjusted goals takes into account that not all goals are created equal: A team’s final score is reduced if a goal comes late in a game that it’s leading or when the opponent is a man down. (Meanwhile, goals that are scored in regular situations are adjusted upward to balance out the total number of goals across a league.)
  • Shot-based expected goals (xG) is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given the location of its shots and the players who took them.
  • Non-shot expected goals is an estimate of how many goals a team could have scored given their nonshooting actions in and around their opponent’s penalty area.
These three metrics are combined to help generate a team’s SPI rating and therefore its chances of winning future games. Read the full methodology »
3/24
New England0
56%25%
FC Cincinnati2
19%
NWECIN
Adjusted goals0.02.1
Shot-based xG1.41.4
Non-shot xG2.01.3
3/23
LAFC2
61%21%
Real Salt Lake1
18%
LAFCRSL
Adjusted goals1.91.1
Shot-based xG1.00.9
Non-shot xG1.90.3
3/23
Philadelphia3
51%26%
Columbus0
23%
PHICLB
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG0.80.8
Non-shot xG0.91.1
3/23
NY Red Bulls0
79%15%
Orlando City1
6%
NWYORL
Adjusted goals0.01.1
Shot-based xG1.11.2
Non-shot xG0.80.8
3/23
FC Dallas2
69%21%
Colorado1
10%
DALCLR
Adjusted goals2.11.1
Shot-based xG2.31.6
Non-shot xG1.30.9
3/17
Colorado1
27%25%
Sporting KC1
48%
CLRSKC
Adjusted goals1.10.8
Shot-based xG1.30.8
Non-shot xG1.00.7
3/17
Toronto FC3
59%22%
New England2
19%
TORNWE
Adjusted goals3.22.1
Shot-based xG1.91.2
Non-shot xG1.41.2
3/17
Atlanta1
60%23%
Philadelphia1
18%
ATLPHI
Adjusted goals1.11.1
Shot-based xG1.21.5
Non-shot xG1.31.2
3/17
FC Cincinnati3
40%25%
Portland0
34%
CINPRT
Adjusted goals3.20.0
Shot-based xG2.31.0
Non-shot xG1.50.9
3/17
NYCFC2
52%23%
LAFC2
24%
NYCLAFC
Adjusted goals2.12.1
Shot-based xG1.42.8
Non-shot xG1.41.2
3/16
LA Galaxy3
57%20%
Minnesota2
23%
LAGMNU
Adjusted goals2.92.1
Shot-based xG2.41.3
Non-shot xG2.10.9
3/16
D.C. United5
54%24%
Real Salt Lake0
23%
DCURSL
Adjusted goals4.30.0
Shot-based xG3.60.6
Non-shot xG2.30.4
See more
Team ratingavg. simulated seasonavg. simulated seasonend-of-season probabilities
teamconferencespioff.def.WDLgoal diff.proj. pts.pts.make playoffsfirst-round byesupporters’ shieldwin mls cup
NY Red Bulls4 pts
Eastern
49.9
1.4
1.2
15.88.59.7+175683%19%10%12%
LAFC10 pts
Western
46.5
1.6
1.5
17.07.69.4+175992%25%14%11%
Seattle9 pts
Western
45.4
1.4
1.4
16.97.210.0+175890%25%14%11%
Sporting KC4 pts
Western
46.6
1.4
1.4
15.78.210.1+155586%18%9%10%
Atlanta2 pts
Eastern
48.1
1.4
1.3
14.59.310.2+115375%12%6%8%
Toronto FC6 pts
Eastern
43.9
1.5
1.6
15.77.211.2+95477%16%8%7%
D.C. United7 pts
Eastern
43.8
1.4
1.5
15.28.410.4+145478%15%8%6%
NYCFC3 pts
Eastern
44.1
1.4
1.5
13.210.510.4+75065%8%3%5%
Columbus7 pts
Eastern
41.9
1.1
1.3
14.28.911.0+55170%9%4%5%
Montreal6 pts
Eastern
40.7
1.2
1.4
14.37.811.9+55168%9%4%4%
Philadelphia4 pts
Eastern
42.8
1.4
1.5
13.78.112.1+54964%7%3%4%
LA Galaxy6 pts
Western
39.6
1.5
1.8
14.16.613.3+04970%8%4%3%
FC Dallas7 pts
Western
39.5
1.2
1.5
13.48.412.2+34970%6%3%3%
Portland1 pt
Western
39.6
1.4
1.7
12.77.913.4-34660%4%2%3%
Houston7 pts
Western
36.4
1.3
1.7
12.98.013.0-34763%5%2%2%
Real Salt Lake4 pts
Western
36.8
1.3
1.7
12.38.013.7-64556%3%1%2%
Minnesota6 pts
Western
34.0
1.3
1.9
12.76.814.5-44557%4%2%2%
FC Cincinnati7 pts
Eastern
33.6
1.1
1.6
12.08.513.6-44445%3%<1%1%
New England1 pt
Eastern
35.1
1.1
1.6
10.18.215.7-113826%<1%<1%<1%
Vancouver0 pts
Western
31.5
1.2
1.9
9.76.817.5-153627%<1%<1%<1%
Orlando City5 pts
Eastern
31.7
1.1
1.8
10.18.915.0-133928%<1%<1%<1%
Chicago1 pt
Eastern
32.2
1.1
1.7
9.38.216.4-153621%<1%<1%<1%
San Jose0 pts
Western
27.5
1.1
2.0
8.46.519.1-273216%<1%<1%<1%
Colorado2 pts
Western
25.3
0.9
1.9
7.68.717.7-233113%<1%<1%<1%
Forecast from
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